Equilibrium-correction vs. differencing in macroeconometric forecasting

Recent work by Clements and Hendry elucidate why forecasting systems that are in terms of differences, dVARs, can be more accurate than econometric models that include levels variables, EqCMs. For example, dVAR forecasts are in some cases insulated from parameter non-constancies in the long run mean of the cointegration relationships. In this paper, the practical relevance of these issues are investigated for RIMINI, the quarterly macroeconometric model used in Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), an example of an EqCM forecasting model. We develop two dVAR versions of the full RIMINI model and compare EqCM and dVAR forecasts for the period 1992.1–1994.4. We also include forecasts from univariate dVAR type models. The results seem to confirm the relevance of the theoretical results. First, dVAR forecasts appear to provide some immunity against parameter non-constancies that could seriously bias the EqCM forecasts. Second, the misspecification resulting from omitting levels information generates substantial biases in the dVAR forecasts 8 and 12 quarters ahead.     

Monetary Policy in the Greenspan Era: A Time Series Analysis of Rules vs. Discretion*

Relationships between the Federal funds rate, unemployment, inflation and the long‐term bond rate are investigated with cointegration techniques. We find a stable long‐term relationship between the Federal funds rate, unemployment and the bond rate. This relationship is interpretable as a policy target because deviations are corrected via the Federal funds rate. Deviations of the actual Federal funds rate from the estimated target give simple indications of discretionary monetary policy, and the larger deviations relate to special episodes outside the current information set. A more traditional Taylor‐type target, where inflation appears instead of the bond rate, does not seem congruent with the data.     

Sheep as capital goods and farmers as portfolio managers: a bioeconomic model of Scandinavian sheep farming

A model analyzing the economics of sheep farming is formulated. The basic idea is simple. Sheep are capital and they are held by farmers as long as their capital value exceeds their slaughter, or meat, value. Farmers are therefore portfolio managers aiming to find the optimal combination of different categories of animals. Yields are compared with the yields from other assets. The model is formulated within a Northern Scandinavian economic and biological setting with a crucial distinction between the outdoors grazing season and the indoors season, and with adult sheep and lambs being different categories. In the first step, the management problem is analyzed with only the meat income of the farmers taken into account. In the next step, income from wool production is considered as well. The analysis provides several results that differ from standard harvesting theory.     

Strategy antecedents of modes of entry into foreign markets

Although a firm's choice of mode of entry to a foreign market is central to the implementation of international strategy, we have only limited understanding of the effects of international strategy on the choice. This study explores the effects of business relatedness and corporate international experience. Data were collected on 173 ventures of Swedish manufacturing firms that were present on the German market, and multivariate techniques were applied to test hypotheses. It was found that product/market relatedness and intangible resource relatedness between the foreign business unit and the industrial firm's core business unit favored a full control entry mode based on sole ownership. This finding was also valid for importance of foreign markets. Further, market importance moderated the two relationships regarding business relatedness. Contributions to the literature are discussed.     

It Takes Three to Tango: Exploring the Interplay among Training Intensity,Job Autonomy,and Supervisor Support in Predicting Knowledge Sharing

This study explored whether the relationship between perceived training intensity and knowledge sharing is prone to combined moderating influences. We operationalized perceived training intensity as a challenge stressor, in accordance with the challenge‐hindrance framework of work stressors. The results of a study of 129 employees from three Norwegian service industries revealed a positive relationship between perceived training intensity and supervisor‐rated knowledge sharing for employees reporting high levels of perceived job autonomy and high levels of perceived supervisor support. In contrast, we found a negative relationship between perceived training intensity and supervisor‐rated knowledge sharing for employees reporting high levels of perceived job autonomy and low levels of perceived supervisor support. These findings suggest that supervisors are of vital importance in facilitating knowledge sharing among employees in settings where developmental challenges are prevalent and perceptions of job autonomy are high. Implications for future research and practice are also discussed. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The Impact of Environmental Labelling on Consumer Preference: Negative vs. Positive Labels

Eco-labels in use today signify environmentally benign outcomes: "Choose this product, it is better for the environment than the average product." Another strategy would be to indicate negative outcomes with the purpose of trying to persuade consumers to avoid a product: "Do not choose this product, it is worse for the environment than the average product." In a computer-based experiment, it was investigated how these two types of labels affected preference for some everyday products. Individuals who had a weak or no interest in environmental issues were unaffected by either kind of label. Individuals with an intermediate interest in environmental issues were more affected by a negative label than by a positive label. Individuals with a strong interest in environmental protection were equally affected by the two kinds of labels.     

Quality improvement programs: Tools for international competitive advantage

There is growing concern about the long-run success of U.S. industries in the face of increasing foreign competition. Product quality is a strategic business issue. In an effort to gain competitive advantage, some firms are implementing organization-wide quality training programs. Many firms have still to recognize the benefits of a quality orientation, however. This article examines how quality programs are implemented in organizations. It considers factors leading to success in developing a quality orientation and compares the Japanese and American approaches. © 1992 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Reviews

The Review of Austrian Economics -     

Backpacker ethnography

This paper presents an ethnographic study of the travel culture of international backpackers. Their sociodemographic characteristics are described, the contours of a concept of tourism culture are delineated, and on that basis, that of backpackers is outlined, with particular focus on the key phenomenon of road status. The analysis of backpacker tourism as a culture furthers the comprehension of change within the phenomenon. Examples of factors of change include the guidebooks, the short-term backpackers, and in particular the internet. This study demonstrates the merit of a dynamic concept of culture where culture takes place whenever activated by social circumstances.